Charley Lamb
17 December 2004
As the tills start ringing their way to Christmas, the Central City retailers and mall managers are locked in a fierce struggle for customers. Charley Lamb suggests the central city is doing better than many might think.
The growth of the suburban shopping malls has had a profound effect on the appearance and atmosphere of Christchurch’s inner city, and for years there’s been a perception that the city is dying a death by a thousand cuts.
With the completion of yet another round of mall development through 2004, one might reasonably conclude that death is now close at hand.
However a major piece of research by third-year commerce students shows that the city is staging a come-back, and that the malls have by no means cornered the market on our discretionary spending. While they are getting bigger and shinier, their real pulling power remains in doubt.
Christchurch has more retail space per capita than anywhere in Australasia. Christchurch City Council zoning decisions have encouraged development and opened up low value areas, such as the Tower Junction site, for further expansion.
The retail sector is now fiercely competitive. Many areas are struggling and some, like Brighton, appear to be on the brink. The mall managers are worried about the effect of each redevelopment on their patch, and no one is enjoying being stuck in a cycle of redevelopment.
Our research into actual shopping behaviour shows that the success of the malls now has little to do with catchment size or location. In a survey of 1067 people at 12 shopping locations, only half of the local shoppers were shopping at the place they shop most often. In effect, half of the people we seen in a mall at any time are transitory. People are extremely mobile and moving around constantly, defying attempts by the mall owners to turn them from occasional visitors into regular customers. Added to this is the mobility of young shoppers via the city’s Orbiter bus route. There are now large numbers of teenagers who travel from mall to mall at the weekends – an hour or two at one centre and then on to meet friends at the next – without buying much at all. They are there for the social interaction of the mall environment, and while they add to the head-count they do little for the bottom line. There is also anecdotal evidence of younger children being dropped off at the mall for the day while their parents go to work or pursue their own interests. With money for lunch and a bus pass, they can join the ranks of the older children hopping from mall to mall.
Shopping is quite clearly a form of social interaction and entertainment, especially for young women. Their motivation is for retail therapy, but therapy does not necessarily produce economic activity. The people who say they shop for relaxation also have the lowest incomes – less than $20,000 a year - and most are under 20 years of age. There is also another cohort of recreational shoppers aged in their early sixties. These are people who are newly retired or have retired early and, like the under twenties, have a limited disposable income.
Westfield at Riccarton is still the dominant mall. 22 per cent of shoppers named this as their main shopping centre, 14% said The Palms, 12% shop most often at Eastgate and 9% prefer the city centre. The news is quite different though when we look at income. The shoppers with the higher incomes are in the central city or at The Palms; while those with the least to spend can be found at Westfield Riccarton and South City.
In many commercial sectors, businesses try to appeal to a particular demographic so that their regular customer based has a commonality. The marketing psychology says that people like to be surrounded by their own kind. But in Christchurch this no longer applies (if it ever did at all). Only a third of shoppers say they like to shop at a place where the people are like themselves. The notable exception is Merivale, which is highly niche.
The performance of each shopping area is now being influenced by other influences, such as ethnicity. Asian residents are most likely to shop for relaxation, followed by new European residents and Pacific Island people. Māori are least likely to be shopping for relaxation. For the mall managers that means further development of their offerings to reflect the tastes and interests of Asian shoppers.
So what does this mean for the future of the central city? The survey shows that the city is highly dependent on domestic and international visitors, who prefer the city over the malls. It also shows that the city has become a place associated with entertainment, including dining, movie theatres and the arts, and also with professional services.
It shows that while the malls offer a reasonably generic experience, the central city is more able to diversify and develop niche areas. We have seen this over the last few years with the fashion and café zone emerging in Victoria Street, the so-called quarter mile of style, and an alternative fashion zone extending steadily south along High Street and its environs. Other new retail niches include Ferry Road at Ferrymead, with a focus on big ticket items, fashion and housewares; and also the old Beckenham shopping centre, where a number of new restaurants have created a local village-like focus. It’s possible that other areas will stage a similar revival.
We should not fear the passing of the central city. Inner city retail sector should survive and prosper, so long as it continues to develop its niches. The local retailers have the ideas and the skills to create a point-of-difference, and it’s up to the city planners to recognise the complementary relationship between the inner city and the malls and to provide the right regulatory environment.
Previous research has highlighted the folly of successive development attempts in Cathedral Square. The sea of granite pavers is exactly what the people didn’t want, and was a costly mistake. More people will return to the central city if the Square has green spaces and the right kind of retail and hospitality businesses on its fringe.
Perhaps the biggest revelation is the effect of our mobility on the way the city functions and, as a result, how it looks and feels. It’s clear that the retail sector has developed into its current shape – with a ring of malls around the central city – because of the network of highly effective local roads. In 10 or 20 years, when world oil reserves are running down and driving is less affordable our shopping behaviour is likely to alter dramatically.
And when that happens, Christchurch will start to look and feel quite different to the city we see today. Our city leaders and their planners will need to revise the zoning rulebook all over again.
Charley Lamb is Senior Lecturer in Marketing at Lincoln University