Climate Change and Tourism

Research on Climate Change and Tourism covers both the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions associated with tourism activities and the adaptation to climatic changes. Adaptation-specific research is undertaken both in the Southern and Northern Hemisphere.

• Adaptation - Southern Hemisphere 
• Adaptation - Northern Hemisphere
• Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 

Adaptation - Southern Hemisphere

Preparing the Tourism Sector for Climate Change (2009-2012) -FRST funded Project

Project Summary

Climate change has the potential to both increase New Zealand’s attractiveness to tourists and undermine some of its core attractions. Tourism in New Zealand is a highly weather and climate dependent industry with most of the popular attractions/ activities enjoyed by international tourists based outdoors. Currently little is known about how sensitive the industry is to climatic events and the level of risk projected future changes pose; what the tourism industry’s adaptive capacity is and which adaptation measures could reduce the potential costs of climate change. This research will help protect and grow international tourism in New Zealand by identifying both the tourist activities most vulnerable to climatic change and potential opportunities for new products. It will also identify where investment is needed to limit the negative effects of climate change and identify adaptation strategies to increase the ability of tourism decision makers’ to cope with resulting future changes. This new knowledge will increase the international competitiveness of the New Zealand tourism industry.

Research Team

Dr. Susanne Becken (Programme Leader)
Prof. Ken Hughey
Dr. Jude Wilson

In partnership with
Dr. Jordy Hendrikx (NIWA)
Dr. Andy Reisinger (Victoria University)

And technical input from Johnny Edmonds and Geoff Butcher.
International advisor: Dr. Daniel Scott (University of Waterloo, Canada)

Funded by the Foundation of Research, Science and Technology and the Ministry of Tourism

Downloadable information (generic)
Background document on "National Screening of Vulnerablility" - to inform the first round of stakeholder workshops.

Poster presented at the Climate Adaptation Futures conference in Australia. Full reference: Becken, S., Wilson, J., Reisinger, A. & Hendrikx, J. (2010). Climate and weather impacts on tourism in New Zealand. Poster presented at Climate Adaptation Futures – Preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change, 29 June to 1 July, 2010, Gold Coast, Australia.

Workshop Report, stakeholder workshop Wellington 20 April 2010, Susanne Becken and Andy Reisinger

Literature Review on Tourism, Weather and Climate (S. Becken, February 2010).

Case study - Southern Lakes (focus on Queenstown and Wanka)
Public presentation held in Wanaka on 7th June 2010, Coping with weather and climate.

 The impact of climate change on seasonal snow conditions in New Zealand - prepared by Jordy Hendrikx (NIWA)

Summary: To examine the potential changes on seasonal snow and their direct and indirect impacts, a two tiered approach has been adopted. The first tier will focus on snow modelling and adaptation in New Zealand. This research indicates that at nearly all elevations, and across all models, the A1B “mid-range” emissions scenario for the 2040s and 2090s scenarios result in a decrease in snow in New Zealand as described by all of our summary statistics: Maximum snow; Snow duration; Percentage precipitation that is snow. The second tier will use the information from the previous work and build on it, to allow for direct comparison between New Zealand and Australian snow models and permit direct assessment of relative impacts on these ski fields. We hypothesis that the relative change in seasonal snow at these trans Tasman locations are likely to be at least as important, if not more important, than the absolute change at each location with respect to driving winter tourism.

Report to Tourism Industry: The Impact of Climate Variability on Tourism Businesses in Wanaka and Queenstown.

Case study - Northland
Summary to tourism stakeholders: Report on the first consultation of tourism stakeholders in the Far North.  

Past projects

Adaptation for the Tourism Sector in Fiji (2005-2007)

Tourism has become an increasingly important economic sector in Fiji that brings foreign exchange earnings, employment and regional development. At the same time, the Fiji tourism industry faces major issues resulting from climate change, such as shoreline and beach erosion, temporarily reduced water availability, interrupted supply chain, coral bleaching, and physical damage to property.

The Ministry of Tourism, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme are working on a project to reduce tourism’s vulnerability from climatic impacts by implementing adaptation initiatives.

The project will contribute to the long term viability and sustainability of tourism in Fiji

A project development has been approved by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), and as part of this the Ministry of Tourism is holding a stakeholder workshop on the 2/3 May at the Holiday Inn in Suva. Participants represent key Government agencies, industry representatives, research organisations, Non-Governmental Organisations and aid agencies. The purpose of the workshop is to engage stakeholders for further project coordination, gather information on available studies and policy-documents, identify climate change impacts and adaptation options in tourism, and assess capacity building and policy needs.

A full proposal for a 3-year project will be submitted to GEF in August. This is the first time that a GEF project addresses explicitly the tourism sector, therefore Fiji will be a key pilot destination to produce knowledge and experience about adaptation to climate change, which will serve also for other island nations and coastal destinations around the world. The full project will aim at strengthening institutional capacities, national policies and public-private partnerships for the implementation of on-the ground adaptation measures. Suitable demonstration areas will be identified and selected for this purpose in the Fiji islands.

Overview document: http://www.tourism.gov.fj/press_release/CLIMATE_CHANGE.pdf
This research built on earlier work undertaken in 2004, which aimed to enhance understanding of climate change issues associated with tourism in Fiji in terms of adaptation, mitigation and policy/regulatory impacts.

Collaboration between Lincoln University, Landcare Research and the University of the South Pacific under the 8th EDF grant (2004).

Final Report: Becken, S. (2004). Climate change and tourism in Fiji. Vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Final Report. University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji.

Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges
Technical Background report prepared by eCLAT for the Global Climate Summit in Davos, Switzerland. United Nations World Tourism Organisation in partnership with the United Nations Environmental Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation 2007.

The output of the Davos Summit was the Davos Declaration

Becken, S. (2007). Climate Change and Tourism. Findings of the UNWTO Davos Report. UNFCCC Conference, UNWTO Tourism Side Event, 12 December, Bali, Indonesia. 

Adaptation - Northern Hemisphere

Climate Change and Tourism Change in Northern Canadian Communities: A Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment (2009-2012)

 Research Team

• Dr Margaret Johnston, Lakehead University, Canada
• Dr Harvey Lemelin, Lakehead University, Canada
• Dr Emma Stewart , Lincoln University, New Zealand
• Dr Jackie Dawson, University of Guelph, Canada

This research seeks to clarify and expand strategies for managing tourism change and its interaction with climate change in several northern Canadian communities. Climate change, along with other influences such as global economic shifts and increasing security concerns, will have far-reaching consequences for tourism in the Canadian north. Communities and individuals who rely on the sector may be affected through negative outcomes or through opportunities for development. This research addresses the urgent need to understand climate change adaptations in the tourism industry in reference to northern residents and northern communities based on their strengths, experiences and visions. Using case studies in Baffin Island, Nunavik and Nunatsiavut, the research will explore changes for communities related to expedition cruising and terrestrial wildlife tourism. The study adapts a framework that encompasses climate change, tourism change, community resilience and community adaptation. The goal of the study is to identify appropriate community-level adaptation strategies to be used by local stakeholders and decision-makers. Adaptation will be unique to each community, but likely will focus on changes in visitor numbers, expectations, experiences and impacts, necessitating a variety of adaptation strategies that seek to take advantage of the opportunities and to minimize negative outcomes.  This study is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

This research seeks to answer the following questions:

• How do northern residents adapt to tourism change?
• What are the elements of community resilience that can help residents cope with tourism change and its interaction with climate change?
• How are local and non-local stakeholders in the tourism industry responding to climate change related conditions and uncertainty?
• What are the interactions of climate change and non-climate change related stresses being experienced in northern communities and in the tourism industry?
• What strategies will help communities and residents adapt to the interactions of tourism change and climate change?

Case study locations will be determined through consultation with and requests by community and regional leaders. For each case study the framework will be used as follows:

1. assess current views of opportunities and issues through resident and other stakeholder interviews and review of documents (August 2009 -  December 2010)
2. estimate tourism and climate changes through existing climate change assessments and extensions, and expert interviews on tourism change (September 2010 – September 2011)
3. assess future exposure to change and resilience by examining tourism and climate changes in relation to adaptive capacity assessment from step one, and develop adaptive strategies (December 2010 – December 2011)
4. obtain views of residents and other stakeholders about adaptive strategies through a formal review (by March 2012)
5. provide final adaptive strategies to communities along with other information and resources requested (by July 2012)

Research Team

• Dr Emma Stewart , Lincoln University, New Zealand
• Dr Stephen Howell, Environment Canada, Canada
• Dr Adrienne Tivy, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA
• Dr Jackie Dawson, University of Guelph, Canada
• Dr Dianne Draper, University of Calgary, Canada

Climate induced changes in the Arctic could have significant environmental and economic impacts, and mean that economic sectors that are better able to adapt to a changing climate will prosper, and those that are not may decline, relocate, or disappear. Given the reported decreases in Northern Hemispheric sea ice extent in almost every month of the year since 1979 some suggest that Arctic regions will see continued increases in the cruise tourism sector. However, there is limited understanding of the implications of sea ice change for the expedition cruise industry. In order to address this knowledge gap the objective of the project is to examine ice regimes in the Canadian Arctic to help understand past, present and possible future cruise activity in the region. Using the Canadian Ice Service digital ice charts, we examine changes in sea conditions over the past 37 years in order to provide the basis for a discussion about the future of cruise tourism in through the Northwest Passage, the Hudson Bay and Newfoundland and Labrador regions of the Canadian Arctic. The possible implications for shifting patterns of cruise activity in the region are explored, as are issues of safety, monitoring and surveillance. 

Climate Change and Wildlife Viewing Tourism in Churchill Manitoba, Canada (on-going) 

Research Team

• Dr Jackie Dawson, University of Guelph, Canada
• Dr Emma Stewart , Lincoln University, New Zealand
• Dr Harvey Lemelin, Lakehead University, Canada
• Dr Daniel Scott, University of Waterloo, Canada

The purpose of the project is to assess the impact that a changing climate will have on the $3 million dollar wildlife viewing tourism industry in the Churchill, Manitoba region of northern Canada. The first objective of the project is to outline the impacts of climate change on tourism supply (i.e. tourism resources – winter & summer) under 'least' and 'most' change for 2020, 2050, and 2080. This will be completed through use of GCM's forced with two IPCC-SRES emission scenarios that represented high (A1F1 - 970 ppm) and low (B1 - 550ppm) greenhouse gas emission futures and through examination of IPCC and ACIA reports. The second objective evaluates the indirect impacts that climate change will have on tourist demand (i.e. changes in tourist behaviour and travel destination choice). This will be assessed via a tourism survey and informal interviews. Demographic and socio-economics (notably changing demographics and rising cost of fuel) will also be considered in the analysis. 

Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Tourism Footprinting Tool - Environmental Footprint of the New Zealand Tourism Sector
Project Leader: Prof. Caroline Saunders
Team:

Dr. Susanne Becken
Mr. Barber, Agricultural Engineering Consultant
Mr. Sorenson, Research Associate
Mr. Parsonson-Ensor

The tourism sector in New Zealand is the largest export sector accounting for a fifth of our export earnings.  However, this sector is at risk unless we can demonstrate the environmental footprint of the industry within NZ and how we are moving to improve this. This is seen as an issue especially in relation to tourists from Europe who have concerns about their carbon footprint.  This also fits in well with the government agenda on sustainability and its commitments such as under the Kyoto Protocol.

This research therefore will build on existing initiatives in the industry to establish a methodology for measuring the tourism industry’s carbon footprint and identifying ways how it can be reduced.  It will also build upon existing and ongoing research at Lincoln University’s research centres (i.e. LEAP and the AERU), and elsewhere in the measurement and reduction of businesses carbon footprints.  Measurement of carbon footprints should be undertaken in a manner that ensures maximum update from the businesses and facilitates of energy and emission reductions. The methodology will be compatible with that being developed in other markets, for example the primary sectors, overseas developments and the ISO standards. The research will demonstrate through exemplars the carbon footprint of these businesses and how this can be readily measured and reduced. In doing this, consideration will be made of the other impacts that the industry may wish to measure to meet environmental sustainability criteria beyond carbon dioxide emissions.

This project is managed by the Ministry of Economic Development in partnership with the Ministry of Tourism.

Standards considered:

• Green Globe 21 - The path to sustainable travel and tourism. Green Globe New Zealand.
• CarboNZero - travel and tourism. Landcare Research.
• Qualmark Responsible tourism. Qualmark. (Need more information and access to toolkit.
• The GHG Protocol - A corporate accounting and reporting standard. World resources institute and World business council for sustainable development.
• PAS 2050 - Specification for the assessment of the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of   goods and services. British Standards. (Publicly Available Standard.)
• ISO 14064-1: Greenhouse gases - Part 1: Specification with guidance at the organisational level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. International standards.
• Energy audit manual New Zealand. Energy Management Association of New Zealand.

Available at: http://www.eecabusiness.govt.nz/emprove/emprove-library/implementation/conduct-an-audit/guide/energy-audit-manual-07.pdf 

Pathways to Sustainability. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from international tourism
This FRST funded project researched the travel behaviour of international tourists in New Zealand to better understand energy requirements and greenhouse gas emissions, and to identify ways of reducing these. This Landcare Research project was in collaboration with Lincoln University (2002 to 2006). Research outputs are available for:

• Energy use in the NZ tourism sector
• Tourist decision making and itineraries
• The perception of carbon sinks and offsetting
• International air travel
• The energy use of coach tourism
• Tourist transport (Special Issue of the Journal of Sustainable Tourism) 

Downloadable information:

TIANZ On Schedule

Summary of Research with Tourism Holdings Limited (Maui/Britz campervans)

Lynes, J. & Becken, S. (2002). In-flight impact. Alternatives Journal Special Issue Tourism (28 (4), 36-37.

Becken, S. & Hart, P. (2004). Climate change policy and tourism in New Zealand. In Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C. R. & Scott, D. (eds). Advances in Tourism Climatology (pp. 198-206).  Berichte des Meteorologischen Institutes der Universitaet Freiburg, Nr. 12. Freiburg.

Hart, P., Becken, S. & Turney, I. (2004). Offsetting carbon dioxide emissions from tourism. In Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C. R. & Scott, D. (eds). Advances in Tourism Climatology (pp. 97-104).  Berichte des Meteorologischen Institutes der Universitaet Freiburg, Nr. 12. Freiburg.

Becken, S. (2004). Tourist transport – a comparison between New Zealand and Fiji. Leisure Travel, Tourism Travel and the Environment. OECD and Umweltbundesamt workshop, 4-5 November, 2004, Berlin, Germany.

Becken, S. & Cavanagh, J. (2003). Energy efficiency trend analysis of the tourism sector. Research Contract Report: LC02/03/293. Prepared for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority.