Tourism & Oil (2007 to 2010)
Full title: Identifying high-yielding adaptation measures for tourism to respond to global oil prices
Project leader: Dr. Susanne Becken
List of all the Outputs to date
Tourism is an important sector contributing 19% to New Zealand’s export revenue. At the same time, tourism is extremely dependent on oil for both travel to and within New Zealand. While forecasts for future tourism growth are generally optimistic, they fail to take into account potential changes in global oil price and effects on arrival numbers. It might be timely to consider how tourism might change given incremental or rapid increases in oil price. This research will develop a Tourism Sector Model that allows investors, operators and policy makers to assess how travel behaviour will change under various oil price scenarios, what types of tourists, products and destinations are most at risk, and what adaptation measures could be put in place to manage those risks. The wider implications of increasing oil prices and changes in tourism will be analysed through a Tourism Computable General Equilibrium model.
The programme is led by Lincoln University in partnership with Covec Ltd and Landcare Research. It started on 1 October 2007 and has been completed in October 2010.
More research projects with a focus on tourism can be found in the Tourism theme.
The research team consists of Dr. Becken (Lincoln University), Dr. Schiff and Mr. Vuletich from Covec, and Dr. Lennox from Landcare Research. The team covers the necessary disciplines of microeconomics, macroeconomics, resource management and tourism. The Tourism Industry Association and the Ministry of Tourism have been involved in the development of this research proposal and past activities (e.g. workshops) in the area of tourism, energy use and climate change. Both organisations are heavily committed to this project with in-kind support. The research programme maintains an Advisory Board consisting of:
Funding is provided by the Foundation of Research, Science and Technology from 2007 to 2010.
New - Online assessment tool for oil vulnerability
This very simple tool allows businesses to assess their vulnerability to oil shocks. A guide on the methodology is available in the New Zealand Tourism Oil Price Risk Assessment Tool documentation (PDF 438KB)
Advisory Group Meetings
The Advisory Group and the Research Team met three times.
First meeting: 12th of March 2008
Second meeting: 30th of October 2008
Third meeting: 5th of March 2010
The following documents produced as a result of this project might be of interest for downloading.
- Peak Oil and Responsible Aviation
- "Developing an Oil Vulnerability Assessment tool for tourism" - Presented at the Auckland NZ Tourism Hospitality and Research Conference, 24-26 November 2010.
- Summary list of all outputs and public dissemination, download here.
- PowerPoint presentation of summary presentation provided in South Africa.
- Background paper: Oil, the Global Economy and Tourism. Summary Paper to be presented at the AIEST conference in South Africa, 12-16 September, 2010.
- "Fuelling Tourism" series of three articles provided to Inside Tourism (N. Coventry)
- Summary of the Energy Audits of 15 accommodation businesses, Download here.
- Oil Supply Side Summary (2009) (PDF 65 KB)
- Oil Demand Side Summary (2009) (PDF 70 KB)
- Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and the Price of Oil (PDF 377 KB)
- Conference presentation and paper: Oil Price and Tourism in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework. By: James Lennox and Aaron Schiff.
- Conference presentation: The price of tourism in the context of global oil prices. By: Susanne Becken, Andrea Carboni, Aaron Schiff, Shane Vuletich, James Lennox and John Small.
- The vulnerability of tourism to oil price (DOC 128 KB)
- Oil Poster (CAUTHE conference in Australia 2008) (PDF 1303 KB)
- Summary of Oil Interviews (DOC 33 KB)
- OECD Forum 2008 Opinion Editorial (PDF 145 KB)